The Economy

Major Economists do not see a big wave of foreclosures

Millions of homeowners have been sheltered from foreclosures since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.  But with mortgage forbearance programs and foreclosure moratoriums winding down, is there going to be a surge in home foreclosures?  While some investors are hoping to see a rise in problem properties, top real estate market economists don't anticipate a huge number of forced home sales by lenders.  "We don't think we are going to see a tsunami of foreclosures occurring," said Dr. James Gaines, the longtime economist with the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University. "I don't think we will start seeing anything until the first half of next year.  "It's a relatively small number of homes still getting mortgage forbearance.

At the end of August, only about 3% U.S. home loans were in forbearance plans, according to the latest estimate from the Mortgage Bankers Association of America. That adds up to about 1.6 million homeowners.  The share of home mortgages in payment forbearance is less than half what it was a year ago.  Home foreclosures have been almost nonexistent in the last year, with most lenders holding back from forcing property sales.  Any rise in home foreclosures won't compare with previous down cycles, Gaines said.  "There will be nothing on the scale we saw back in 2008 and 2009," he said. "We don't see it happening — particularly in Texas."  Because of big increases in home values in D-FW and other Texas markets in the last few years, most homeowners have large amounts of equity in their houses.

Dallas Morning News, September 10, 2021

• 11^th Largest Economy in the World – 1.6 Trillion annually – Greater than Russia or Australia
• 29 million population – larger than Australia, and just under Canada in size
• Tax Donor Status – Texas could pay less federal income taxes.  For every $1 we pay, the state only receives 94 cents in return
• Energy – Texas is self-sufficient.  The US has three energy grids – West, East and Texas.  No other state is self-sufficient in Energy.
• Could we secede?   No, the federal government has made laws against secession
• BUT, Texas could legally divide into 5 states,  This was part of our constitutional agreement with the US when Texas was admitted as a state.  Then Texas could have 10 senators, rather than 2.   This could be done without the approval of the US Congress.

Interesting Facts, You Tube 2019

• * Texas claims the top spot in CNBC's 2018 America's Top States for Business rankings.
• * The energy sector is helping to turbocharge the $1.6 trillion Texas economy.
• * Texas has added more than 350,000 jobs in the past year.
• * Texas is home to some of America's most important public and private companies, including giants like AT&T, ExxonMobil and Dell.

Riding the rising tide of energy prices—and the job growth that goes with it—Texas claims the top spot in CNBC's 2018 America's Top States for Business rankings.

This is familiar territory for the Lone Star State, which becomes the first four-time winner in our annual study, now in its 12th year. But it has been a long time coming. This is the first time since 2012 that Texas has claimed top honors. Not coincidentally, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil—the state's most important export—peaked at just over $108 per barrel that year, a figure it has not seen since. But it has risen enough—around 60 percent in the last year, powering through the $70 per barrel mark in June—to turbocharge the $1.6 trillion Texas economy.

"The Texas economy remains in a broad-based expansion," said Dallas Federal Reserve economists Christopher Slijk and Jason Saving in a recent report. "The state's energy sector continues to boom, and areas of the state tied to oil and gas are growing at their strongest pace since 2014."  Texas has added more than 350,000 jobs in the past year, with the largest increase in the energy sector. Put another way, 1 in 7 jobs created in the United States in the past year was created in Texas.

Texas is home to 39 companies in the Standard and Poor's 500 index, including AT&T, ExxonMobil and Texas Instruments. And it boasts some of the nation's largest privately-held companies, including supermarket operator H-E-B, Neiman Marcus Group and Hunt Oil.  With solid economic growth last year — including a torrid 5.2 percent state GDP increase in the fourth quarter — Texas finishes first in our Economy category this year.

• CNBC, July 10, 2018

Dallas-Fort Worth's job base grew the fastest of the nation's dozen biggest metro areas over the year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday.  From November 2016 to November of last year, the D-FW metro added 100,400 jobs — a 2.8 percent increase. That was also the largest increase by sheer number.

Much of D-FW's growth was spurred by expansion in professional and business services, which added 31,100 positions. That's no surprise as regional leaders work to recruit corporate headquarters that employ thousands of highly paid workers in sprawling new developments anchored by offices.  In particular, financial services companies have expanded their head counts in areas where living costs are cheaper than the coastal cities where those companies often have their headquarters.  Charles Schwab, for instance, is expected to have 2,600 workers at its campus in Westlake that's under construction.

Now, economists say, the biggest challenge in many fast-growing cities is to find enough workers to fill those jobs as baby boomers age out of the workforce and immigration slows.  At the national and state levels, unemployment has been at record lows.  Still, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas predicted that Texas, whose growth has has been powered in large part by D-FW in recent years, will continue to add jobs at top speed in 2018.

• Dallas Morning News, January 12, 2018